ANALISIS METODE PERAMALAN (FORECASTING) PADA PRODUK EXPORT MOTORCYCLE TIRE (STUDI KASUS: PT. MC)

Abstrak

Forecasting is an estimate of something that has not happened by estimating a value in the future using historical data for a certain period. This research was conducted at PT. MC with the object of research are 81 sizes of motorcycle tire export products. This study discusses the analysis of forecasting methods on ​​export products of motorcycle tires. Forecasting methods used in this study are the Naïve method, Single Moving Average (n=3 and n=5), Weighted Moving Average (n=3 and n=5), Exponential Smoothing (α=0,1 ; α =0,5 ; and α=0.9), and Linear Trend Projection. The selection of the best method by looking at the value of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) on each of its sizes. The highest number of sizes with the smallest MAD value is the Naïve method, which is 45 sizes out of 81 sizes or 55,56%. Therefore, it can be said that the best method to be applied at PT. MC is the naïve method.